Finals Footy

So the NRL regular season is coming to an end and once again we look forward to September and the crazy crazy finals series! Crazy because every time I look at it I confuse myself. This year I’m not going to get into detail about the format, but just a look at the potential top 8 going into the last week of the comp and make some predictions for the finals series.

Going into the last round of the competition the table looks like this:
1. St George Illawarra
23
16
7
0
2
480
275
205
36
2. Wests Tigers
23
15
8
0
2
519
482
37
34
3. Penrith
23
14
9
0
2
595
477
118
32
4. Gold Coast
23
14
9
0
2
499
480
19
32
5. Warriors
23
13
10
0
2
513
474
39
30
6. Sydney Roosters
23
13
10
0
2
541
502
39
30
7. Manly
23
12
11
0
2
521
480
41
28
8. Canberra
23
12
11
0
2
481
477
4
28
9. South Sydney
23
11
12
0
2
560
529
31
26
10. Brisbane
23
11
12
0
2
492
517
-25
26
11. Newcastle
23
10
13
0
2
495
535
-40
24
12. Parramatta
23
10
13
0
2
401
465
-64
24
13. Canterbury-Bankstown
23
8
15
0
2
464
515
-51
20
14. Cronulla
23
7
16
0
2
342
559
-217
18
15. North Queensland
23
5
18
0
2
417
649
-232
14
16. Melbourne
23
13
10
0
2
455
359
96
0

The Dragons have been the form team this year without a doubt and deserve their minor premiership. They can’t be caught now, the Rabbitohs face them this weekend and they themselves will be pushing to sneak into 8th spot for a rematch! Whoever ends up in 8th is genuinly up against it. Paramatta made it through last year by a great run of form, there are no teams in contention for 8th that you would say are in a great vein of form so you would have to say that whoever ends up in 8th is going straight back home again.

West Tigers, Penrith and Gold Coast have all had great seasons too. I would suggest that they would round out the top 4 to the misfortune of the Warriors. The Warriors can force a home play off if they beat the Eels and the Gold Coast lose to the Tigers- both pretty real possiblities, so its far from over for the Warriors from making the top 4 and they need a little bit of luck to go their way to get a home semi at mt smart.

But I have to say, the top 4 at the moment have been the frount runners pretty much all season and probably in the scheme of things deserve to finish in the top 4 and get the home games. 5 and 6 are also pretty secure. The Warriors and the Roosters will both make the 8 regardless of what happens this weekend, its just where in the 8 they will fall that matters now, they are neck and neck in terms of points difference, the Roosters take on the hapless Cowboys and the Warriors go up against the unpredictable Eels. The Roosters are in some rampant form and I think they’ll dish out a hiding to the Cowboys. The Warriors should beat the Eels, but I think the difference will be the sheer hiding that the Roosters are going to give the Cowboys that will see them elevated to 4th or 5th, the Warriors in 6th. Manly would have to lose by a lot to drop out of the 8, I suppose mathematically its possible, but unlikely against a stuttering Bulldogs. Canberra, the Rabbits and the Broncos are pretty much all in with an equal chance of rounding out the top 8.

Canberra and Broncos line up against each other in a life or death match- should make for good watching! If Canberra win then obviously the Broncos are gone and Souths will be too. If the Broncos get up, they’ll need to dish out a thrashing to get over the line! But even if they beat Canberra, Souths still need to thump the Dragons by plenty to get in.

Having considered all that I think I can reasonably predict the following top 8:

Dragons:
Tigers
Penrith
Titans
Roosters
Warriors
Sea Eagles
Raiders

From there – Dragons v Raiders – (Dragons). Sea Eagles v Tigers (Sea Eagles) Panthers v Warriors (Warriors) Titans v Roosters (Roosters). After that – who knows- its all too complicated to figure out at 5pm.

Richie is now going to come along as disagree with everything I just said:!


I hate to say it Scotty but I am going to have to disagree with you about the Dragons being a foregone conclusion come the first week of the finals. This time last year they were looking pretty strong and looking like going all the way.

Don't get me wrong, they have a great team. Darius Boyd at the back, Nightingale, Copper and Gasnier in the centres and Soward and Hornby in the halves. That is a formidable backline and we haven't even started talking about their forwards. Chuck Weyman, Costigan, Creagh, Jeremy Smith and Nathan Fien in for good measure and you do have one of the best teams on paper. The problem with these guys is that they are becoming the perennial chokers of the NRL. I think this has a lot to do with Soward. He is someone that does standout most weeks for the Dragons. But the guy has never really been tested. I think that there is a reason that the NSW selectors keep overlooking him and that is because he doesn't have any big game experience. Ben Hornby is also a journeyman in that respect. I like the Dragons, but I just don't think that they will be guaranteed to beat the 8th placed team, such is the evenness of the competition this year.

I think Scotty's top 8 predictions are just about bang on. I can't see the Broncos getting up against the Raiders this weekend. They were horrible last weekend against the Warriors and they just don't look like they have the goods without Lockyer. They are missing the stalwarts that they used to have. They have young guys with huge potential but just aren't quite there yet. For you Broncos fans this year, thanks for the memories but it is time your boys hit the proverbial showers early this year but I expect that you will be back and even stronger next year. Hodges on one side and Inglis on the other, being fed cut out passes by Lockyer and Wallace. The Broncos will be back next year.

The Roosters are one team that I think will be grandfinalists this year. I watched their game against Manly last weekend and I was as surprised as Phil Gould that they managed to stay in the hunt and within reach during that first half. They were absolutely rubbish. They had this chump of a guy who is the Cook Island's fullback at the back wearing number 18. I think it was his debut. In this first two minutes, he retreaved a kick, ran it to the line and then rather than taking a tackle, threw a long cut out ball across the field in his own 20m that went to ground. That told the Sea Eagles that he didn't want to run it at them for the rest of the game so they made sure that everytime he got the ball he got three Manly players and was roughed up accordingly. Great rugby league. Despite their horrible fullback and other horrible play, the Roosters held on until oranges, they went into the sheds and came out a completely different team and blew Manly off the park. Granted, this was aided by an 8 point try awarded after the video ref missed a blatant "taking out off the ball" and then penalised Jamie Lyon for diving in late on Kenny-Dowal and making contact with his head. That probably changed the game but it doesn't change the fact that the Roosters stepped up. Todd Carney is a magician at 6. He is the best player in the game at the moment and as long as he is fit and staying off the booze then the Roosters will be there or there abouts. I would also like to mention the huge part that Warea-Hargreaves played in the Roosters revival in that game.

He came off the bench with a huge amount of aggression and got right up in the faces of his old team mates. Its was really good to see. Chuck Minicello back at fullback and you have ready made title contendors.

As for the Warriors, you may recall me giving huge wraps to Jacob Lillyman about 5 weeks back and stating that he would influential in the Warriors run in. I don't mean to blow my own trumpet but I was right. Firstly as a front rower and now in Michael Luck's absence as the lock. He has been huge. He is huge, I didn't realise how broad he is until he came back. He obviously used his time off with injury to bulk up a bit and I see that the Warriors have re-signed him for next year. That is a great move. He can play anywhere in the forwards and seems to have found his spark that I'm sure even he would admit he lost for a while there. He is vital to our playoff hopes this year and the Warriors team next year. Anyone who has 4 Origin caps for Queensland is alright by me.

The Warriors are a bit of a dark horse at the moment. Cleary has the selections right (if you ask me) and they are gelling as a team. Ropati was a bit off the pace last week but he does bring a lot more than Joel Moon does. Vatuvei has been colossal. Seymour has been consistent without being amazing and Maloney has also added some consistency to his game. Rapira is making a huge difference in getting go forward and Mannering has really stepped up. The Warriors are looking good. Expect them to go past the first week of the playoffs. I think a top four final placing is on the cards for them and while my heart says a grand final place, my head isn't quite there yet.

I think the Eagles will exit early. Everyone is going on about the loss of Glenn Stewart being huge for them. I don't think it is. He is so overrated. But the rest of their team is not that good. Jamie Lyon is their best player. Steve Matai comes up injured from every tackle, I am so glad the Warriors didn't sign him.

I think Penrith without Petero is like Brisbane without Lockyer. I don't expect that they will go much further. The Titans and the Tigers are both dark horses. I love Luke Bailey for the Titans (mainly because of the way Ray Warren says his name).

Once the top 8 is decided Scotty and I will give you our predictions from there as to where it will go. Until then, we have lots of league to watch this weekend.

Go the Warriors

NZ Cricket and why it is SHIT

I'm angry and need to have a bleet.

It's not about the Black Caps, they are doing OK and I do agree with most of the selections that have been made there.

I need to air my anger at the dumb ass pricks at New Zealand Cricket for fucking up the future of the game in our country. You are stupid, inbred fuckwits.

The Emerging Players tournament is currently going on and I was happy to see a headline saying that NZ had thumped Australia. Little did I know that the pack of tosspots they sent over to play the tournament is pretty much a who's who of old or shit domestic cricketers. I do withhold any anger towards the following people however, Brownlie, de Grandhomme, Beard and Bennett. They are all young, EMERGING, cricketers and its great to see them get an opportunity to play some international cricket.

My problem lies with the following dicks: Tim McIntosh, Jamie How, Shannon Stewart, Brendon Diamanti, Reece Young, Luke Woodcock and Brent Arnel.

This pack of ol' fellas who couldn't cut in in the big time shouldn't be shunted down to an emerging players team, they should be sent back to their districts to play domestic cricket for the 2 or three years they have left in competitive sport.

What a crock of shit for the NZC to send these twats over under the guise of emerging players. And yeah, we thumped Australia, but they will smash our old, confused ass's in 3 or four years time because unlike our team, who are aged around 28 with three over 30, they are on average no more than 22. Their oldest player is 25.

They are developing their players. They are thinking beyond next week, next year, etc. They are making their sport stronger by preparing the young promising cricketers they have at their disposal for international representation now, when they are most likely to benefit.

So what is the benefit of playing Jamie How, Reece Young or Brent Arnel? Will they be Black Caps, I hope to fuck they won't be because the regurgitation policy NZC has employed over the past god knows how many seasons has not worked. I know it might sound like a crazy idea but how about we look across the ditch and see Australia for what they are, and that is fantastically administered, talented athletes. Instead of saying 'fucking Aussies' all the time how about we look at what they are doing, look at their results and put two and two together. We have young guys in our country who are tremendous talents and will be great Black Caps. Sorry, I meant to say would* be great Black Caps if only the NZC pulled its head out of its ass and used tournament and events like the emerging players to do just that, foster our countries emerging stars.

In the great words of Richie Benaud it just really shits me.

Premier League Preview

The Premier League kicks off this weekend and its that time of year again to take a look at the prospects of the main title contenders, the up and comers, the potentials for the top 4 and maybe a quick look at the relegation prospects.

I won't bore you with a breakdown of each team and their strengths, weaknesses etc because that would take all day, but lets take a look at the big teams in the league and have a guess at how their seasons will go.

Chelsea- Last season's champions. Have lost 4 or 5 big names such as Michael Ballack and Joe Cole but have recruited replacements in the form of Ramirez and Yossi Benayoun. Chelsea have a ridiculously strong and capable squad. They're stable, experienced and have a raft of players who can score goals. Lampard, Anelka, Drogba can easily get 20 goals each a season so this makes them incredibly dangerous. Michael Essien, their driving force in midfield is fit again and once again, Chelsea will be title contenders.
Their defence is a bit leaky though, Terry is looking old, Ashley Cole is out of sorts and they have had a terrible pre-season.
Despite having a very strong attack I have some concerns about them defensively this season and think that might be the difference between first and second or third for Chelsea.
I can't see them backing up in the Premier League, but look out for them in Europe. That Champions League trophy Roman Abramovich dearly wants is looking good to be at Stamford Bridge this year. Second or third in the league.

Manchester United.
An ageing squad has been many people's critisicm of Man U for a couple of seasons now. Giggs, Scholes, Neville are all key players for them but are all in their mid-late 30s and while they are pure quality I can't see them having the stamina to go the whole hog this year, although they are a great team at defying the odds. Again, some of their younger players will be fantastic to look out for this year- Hernandez looks to be an exciting striker, Valencia is finding his feet and maturing nicely. I think they'll be competing with Chelsea for second or third.

Arsenal.
It's been a while for the Gunners since they lifted the trophy 2005 in fact. They've been the bridesmaids of the premier league for a pretty long time. Its high time they realised their potential but I don't know whether this season they will. Its certainly expected that they will perform well and make the top 4 but the pressure is well and truly on Arsene Wenger's men to get a result this year. One of the best teams to watch as they play beautiful football, whether or not thats enough this year I'm not sure. If they can get their shit together I think 4th is realistic for Arsenal this year but they will be hard pushed by Manchester City, who I'm coming to in a minute- the battle for 4th is again going to be interesting, very interesting.

Manchester City.
The new evil in English football! A heavy recruitment drive in the off season has led to every player with some sort of reputation being linked to Man City. Their squad will resemble a who's who of world football and quite frankly on paper they have the best squad that money can buy.
Pulling them together is going to be a massive challenge though. Chelsea showed that money can buy titles with the right manager controlling the team, however, Mancini's quality will be tested week in week out with his bunch of petulant money grabbing players- good luck to him. I think City will be battling for fourth this season once again. You can't simply expect the worlds best players to form a world 11 and dominate the league in their first season together. Between themselves and Arsenal for fourth.

Tottenham Hotspur.
The surprise package last season, palyed very well under Harry Redknapp and took out 4th spot. I think its a case of second season itis for Spurs this year. No big signings (yet). They will be in a very similar position to where Liverpool where last year after their great season in the previous year- 6th or 7th. They played well last year, but I don't think they have kept up with the transfer market enough to compete this year. They got a little lucky last year and will probably slip down the ladder considerably.

Aston Villa.
Have had a good couple of seasons and have enjoyed their 4th successive 6th place finish. Martin O'Neil has been largely responsible for Villa's rise and this should have been the season where they were challenging for a top 4 slot. However, a lack of transfer funds for O'Neill have led him to quit a week out from the season starting- this I think will be too much of a hurdle for Villa to overcome and challenge for a top 4 spot this year. WIll be a season of re-building.

Liverpool- my boys!
Now this prediction isn't written with red tinted glasses and may seem out of left field. I predict that Liverpool will take out the league this year.
They have retained Gerrard who is on a personal mission to revenge England's poor world cup showing. He looks like a man possessed at the moment and for the Liverpool and England captain, this is only a good thing. A big season for Stevie G and the Liverpool lads. Torres is fit again and will team up with a revitalised Joe Cole Dirk Kuyt and Milan Jovanovich. Liverpool have also secured Poulson to shore up the defensive midfield slot along with Carragher and Skrtyl. Their only problem is a lack of quality bench players so this might be their downfall, BUT, provided Torres, Gerrard and Cole stay fit, Liverpool are going to be playing some mighty attractive football this year.
Roy Hodgson's managerial skills will be well received at the cop. I'm looking forward to their success. I know I said that it would be a season to rebuild for them- I've looked at it again and think that they will not be thinking that way. These players have everything to play for. Torres is hungry for trophies, Gerrard is on a mission to restore the club to glory, Cole has a point to prove etc. I think that because all of Liverpool's players have something to prove this season that this will be the difference between them and the rest of the pack.

Relegation candidates:
West Brom (sorry Chris Wood), Blackpool, Newcastle. Basically, the newly promoted clubs. None have had any significant investment in their roster and you simply cant expect to survive in the top flight with no investment.

Should be a good season for kiwi football fans as well. Keep your eyes peeled for Nelsen with Blackburn who should have another mid-table finish. West Ham and Winston Reid- who knows with them, they're a mixed bag, but have recruited well and should be safe from relegation this year. Chris Wood at West Brom as well- he's in a team which will struggle, but lets hope he scores some goals and maybe catches the eye of a bigger club.

So there you have it. Liverpool will take it out. City will not be able to buy the league (this year) Chelsea and Man U will battle it out for 2nd and 3rd and Arsenal and City will slug it out for the final champions league spot.

All things football.

Despite rugby hitting the headlines on the back pages at the moment with the All Blacks enjoying a white hot streak, there are some important goings on in the football world as well, which this football buff feels compelled to write about!

Firstly, let me just say a couple of things about the ITM cup. I apologise because I looked at the whole thing wrong. My focus was purely on the semi final race when really, I should have been looking at the fact that next season the competition is split into two tiers of 7 each. The real focus is going to be on the top 7 and whether or not any big unions fall into the lower category. I think Otagos time is up and they will be playing in the lower division. I can't see Auckland, Canterbury, Wellington, Waikato or Hawkes Bay failing to make the top 7 so that leaves 2 spots to be hotly contested. Those spots are essentially anybody's. I would like to see the Naki make it (although recent form would suggest otherwise) I think Southland are a relatively safe bet to nab a place in the top 7 so actually that leaves 1 slot to be fought over by Taranaki, Bay of Plenty, Manawatu, Northland, Counties, Otago, Tasman and whoever else I might have missed. Point is, doesn't matter who makes the top 4. Its the top 7 teams that will be worried about. That will make for a particularly interesting competition and the smaller teams will be desparate to get up. Manawatu made a decent fist of it last night, pushing Canterbury all the way and the red and blacks just snuck in with a one point win. I'm prepared to admit that I was abit optimistic with Canterbury's chances this year- they don't have as good a squad as previous years, they're a bit down on experience and some of the forwards are a bit smaller than usual. They will still be there or thereabouts though and everyone knows you can't write off Canterbury.

While I'm on rugby, I was watching the Crowd goes Wild last night and Mulligan made a very good point about why the All Blacks are so dominant at the moment. He said, their attitude is simply.....just smash them. Its a good point and if you look at the way we've been playing its all about physical domination. Its great to watch. Guys like the Franks brothers in defence are a joy to watch and the rest of the forward pack are very big physical guys who are selected on the basis of their ability to smash the crap out of everyone. You can tell by the way they hit rucks, tackle and run at players that their attitude is one of, I am going to make you hurt! That will keep us winning and long may that continue. We're seeing it in the backs too. Joe Rococoko is one of the best guys I've seen in a long time at bumping people off because he runs at you with such great speed, some of his runs on Saturday were a bit like watching a leaner Jonah Lomu. Anyway, long may this streak continue. As usual, we seem to be hitting our straps just before the world cup, but I think that's ok. We need to get teams afraid of us again and we're doing that. This squad looks relatively settled at the moment with the exception of a back up for McCaw and Carter. Barring injury until next October, we will be in as good a shape as we ever have been.
The 2011 world cup is ours for the taking. I will go on record now and say that we will dominate it. We will win the world cup next year and at a canter.

Anyway, onto football:

Last season in the Premier League was one of Liverpool's worst in recent memory. At the end of the season there was real concern among Liverpool fans (myself included) that the off-season would lead to a host of key players leaving, Benitez staying on as manager and the club digging itself further into a quagmire of debt and failure.

Things seem to have changed in recent weeks. The appointment of an English manager to the most succesful English club (in terms of trophies won) is a coup for the FA and English football generally. I think it was a very smart move to appoint Roy Hodgson. He's shown to be an astute manager with an ability to work with limited funds and get the most out of the players at his disposal. Last season with Fulham he certainly showed his quality and I think that he will bring success to Liverpool again, maybe not this season, but certainly in a year or two.

Benitez's time was up. He was stale and I'm glad that he and the board of Liverpool saw if fit to end their relationship without major financial implications for club and manager. Credit where it is due to Benitez, whoever, if you look at what he has achieved with Liverpool, a lot of it was based on a squad he largely inherited and his success was mostly in his first season or two in charge. He will always be remembered for his success in the Champions League in 2006 but sadly, he never developed a decent squad and brought in too many rubbish players and sold too many good ones.

I'm thrilled that Fernando Torres, Steven Gerrard and Raina have stayed on. Mascherano will probably leave, but one out of 4 isn't bad in terms of the clubs superstar players. Much credit must go to Hodgson already for persuading Torres and Gerrard- the heart and soul of this team to stay.

Hodgson has also been very astute in the transfer market picking up England international Joe Cole on a free transfer from champions Chelsea. Cole is a classy player and a real coup for Liverpool who have lacked some creativity in recent seasons. Cole will likely be given a roaming commission and I'm really looking forward to seeing him and Gerrard creating chances for Torres. David Ngog, the young french striker, who I've been very critical of in the past has actually started to show some form in the pre-season as well with some important goals. Lets hope he continues to develop and shows some good form this year.

Other arrivals to Liverpools squad are serbian international Milan Jovanovic. He's a classy forward and again, adds some width to a Liverpool attack that has as I've already stated- lacked creativity. There is also rumour that Danish internationl Christian Poulson is headed to Anfeild. Poulson is a quality defender and would fit in perfectly at the back along with Jamie Carragher who is starting to look a bit like the old warhorse that he is. If Poulson is signed that is again, a very astute signing who will bring real value to this team.

The other major thing crippling Liverpool last season was the ownership structure. The club is now for sale and huge interest has been generated from a number of wealthy buyers. Liverpool look set to join the ranks of Manchester City and Chelsea in the sense that their new owner is likely to inject massive amounts of cash in an attempt to win titles. The good thing with Liverpool and where they differ from those two other clubs is that Liverpool is not a rotting carcass of club like City or Chelsea were when the billions rolled in. Liverpool are a club with integrity and despite the low finish last season have always been competitive in the Premier League. I don't have a problem with them getting a cash injection beacuse they are not the type of team that would attempt to buy a title just by recruiting anyone with a half decent reputation ( Man City/Chelsea). A cash injection from a wealthy owner would be used to complement the squad and build a new stadium not rebuild a club- thats the difference.

So, Liverpool look to be set for a season of recovery. I think 4th spot is a good aim for this season. I don't think they can win this year, but 3rd or 4th is realistic and what will be and should be expected from their supporters. I'll review the other teams and the Premier League generally before it kicks off next weekend.

Man City are making me sick already with their transfer market dealings. I will watch them play this year, but only with the hope that they get humped every game.

In other news and just briefly- Winston Reid has completed an $8.5 million dollar move to West Ham United. Big mony for a defender so there is obviously a great deal of respect and potential seen in him by West Ham. He's going to have a tough season there, West Ham have struggled with relegation for the past two seasons now so lets hope that he's able to make a difference to them. He will feature alongside Ryan Nelsen and Chris Wood as the 3rd Kiwi international playing in the Premier League this season. That is pretty good! Well done to him, I hope he is succesful there. I had a bitch a couple of weeks ago about how nothing had happened much but this is a great move for a young player and it may even be a stepping stone for him to higher honours (Arsenal and BLackburn were rumoured to be interested, its a 3 year deal and he will be hitting his peak in 3 years at 25 so he is destined to become a superstar I believe, Joe Cole, John Terry and Frank Lampard all played for West Ham and ended up at Chelsea so yeah....)

Go the All Blacks, Well done Winston Reid, go Liverpool and good luck to Sonny Bill in his Belfast debut this weekend. Richie will be playing in the curtain raiser to Sonny Bill's game and will go and watch Sonny Bill play- we're expecting a report on Monday Richie to see if my man crush on Sonny Bill is worth the effort!

Kane Williamson

After scoring 11 in his opening hit out for the Black caps in their warm up match against Maharashtra, Kane Williamson has struck 86 off 94 balls in the second match, with a RR of just over 91. He also chimed in with 3-23 off 6.1, going at 3.72. Bowling figures for the first match were also impressive with 1-8 off 3.

Warm up match I know, but a pretty impressive start, fingers crossed he gets a run against Sri Lanka and India in the tri-series.

On another note, young guns BJ Watling and Guptill have also been in the runs, Watling hit 55 in the first match and Guptill 87 in the second.

Not the toughest competition but I think its a sign that they are on some form and should go into the internationals with a bit of confidence.

The ITM Cup

The ITM cups kicks off on Thursday this week with Taranaki taking on Northland in New Plymouth, I must admit, I'm a little excited about this years competition, I'm always excited about domestic rugby because this is where it all starts. The grass roots competitions are what makes us such a great rugby nation because all of the superstars and big name players have all come through the domestic system at some stage and mix it up with the part timers and factory workers who have been fortunate enough to grab a contract!

This will be the last domestic comp before the world cup so its really a last chance for our youngsters and upcoming or fringe players to stake a claim for a super 15 contract and a place in the world cup squad.

On top of that there will be a couple of big names floating around the sports grounds of the ITM cup this season. Tana Umaga makes his return to NZ rugby by taking up a player/coaching role with Counties Manakau and Sonny Bill Williams will be pulling on the red and black of Canterbury in an attempt to further his dream of becoming an All Black.

Well, Tana is past it and while he was one of of our greatest ever rugby players I still think he made competely the wrong call to retire a year out from the World Cup in 2007. He was good enough to continue and that decision in my mind was a bit of a responsibility dodge for the inevitable failure of the All Blacks at the World Cup. I lost a lot of respect for Tana after that decision. I've never been able to understand it, now that I put it in print, I see that might sound a little harsh, but I do believe he simply didn't want the responsibility of being another All Black captain who failed at the World Cup. So, I won't really follow Tana with too much interest, he won't make a big difference to the competition nor to Counties. There are plenty better centres in the comp.

Sonny Bill is at the other end of the spectrum. He's generated a massive amount of interest since his walking out on the NRL and putting that aside for a minute - he is a massively talented guy and he WILL make an impact on the competition. I hope to see him in the Crusaders and the All Blacks next year. He is precisely the sort of star players that the All Blacks need. He adds a little something extra which you can't coach and its just pure natural athletic ability. Good luck to the guy. He's come back to the ITM Cup and shunned the riches in France. (admittedly, its all in a bid to get himself in an All Blacks jersey and increase his earning potential, but we all know that and don't really care if he leaves after the world cup back to Europe).

I made the choice to sit on the fence when people were either praising him for walking out on the Bulldogs and giving him all sorts of shit. I don't think the NRL or any of its clubs are in any position to be making calls on player ethics. The NRL has massive ethical issues right across the board. Conflicts of interest, salary cap problems, it goes on, I don't really need to justify what I'm saying because there are so many recent examples of the NRL's poor management.

I can't blame SBW for walking out. He was looking after himself and in today's world you can say what you like about teammates or whatever, but at the bitter end, every man is out to get what is best for him. The NRL despite it being a great comp full of natural talent is poorly run and adminstered. There are fundamental issues within the heirarchy and ownership of the competition and the ownership of teams and conflicts of interest are so rife in the NRL that just reading about some of them simply staggers me. I have to assume that SBW's agent - Koder Nasser, is a smart enough guy to realise the major deficiencies in the NRL and advised his client to get out before it was too late- which he did. So, fair play to SBW, I want to see him succeed. He's a good kiwi boy and if anyone can whip him into a good rugby player its Penney and Blackadder. He won't get any favours at rugby park when he trains with the boys, nor will be get any special treatment out at Belfast where he has opted to play his club footy (why Belfast mate? Seriously? they're a bunch of dirty cheating farmers, but whatever.....)

Anyway lets take a quick look at the teams and assess their chances this year.

Auckland - or the pretty samoans are they are commonly known. I don't give them a chance to be honest. Daniel Braid is back (so what). Ben Atiga is also back (again, who cares). They'll be lucky to make the semis. I don't know what's going on with Auckland rugby, but I don't really care. If they play good rugby, then its good for the sport in our country to have our biggest province performing as it should be. But when they fail, I just don't give a shit.

Bay of Plenty - have started the last couple of seasons with a hiss and a roar. They have a settled squad and play with a good serving of provincial pride. The Bay is actually my home province (I was born in Tauranga) and I always enjoy watching them play and doing well. Semi final spot is a real possibility for the Bay if they maintain some consistency.

Canterbury. I guess my adopted province and the team we all truly support here. I was brought up in Christchurch so have no problems claiming Canterbury as my own! Nothing needs to be said about the Cantabs. The ITM cup is as good as won already.

Counties Manakau. As I've aluded to already, Umaga won't make a shit load of difference so South Auckland's 'finest'. They're the perennial whipping boys of this competition and I can't see anything changing this year.

Hawkes Bay. The big movers in recent years. Napier is fast becoming a hot bed for developing talent. We have them to thank for Dagg, Guildford, Taumalolo, Newlands, Eliot - soem impressive names who have all gone on to win supe 15 contract and 3 out of that 4 have been awarded the ultimate prized black jersey. It will be another good year for the bay, who I'm picking could make the final this year if they don't come across Canterbury in the semis.

Manawatu. Another province which traditionally has been spanked out of the park by some of the bigger teams. They do however, have Aaron Cruden and his cronies now so I expect a couple of upsets to come from the Turbos this year. I love watching them actually, they're a passionate team and Cruden steers them round so well. Mid table finish this year and won't dissapoint. I think they believe they can do better, but I doubt it.

North Harbour. Another bloody Auckland team.....why we need 4 teams in the Auckland area when they are all Shite I just don't know. Harbour haven't done anything for many seasons now and I can't really see that changing. They have Woodcock, Boric, McAlister and the Pisi clan in their ranks but to be honest - its all to coconut factor at Harbour for them to make an impact this year. Another mid-low table finish for them I think.

Northland. Something in the water the last couple of years in Kerikeri has caused the Taniwha to produce a couple of outstanding upsets. However....they're still crap and will finish just above Counties this year second bottom. I hope Holwell has retired, I'm sick of that guy. He's been a great servant, journeyman, blah blah, but fact of the matter is, he is a little bit crap.

Otago - what is going on with Otago? Some have suggested their downfall is due to the declining student numbers at Otago uni. In the past, Otago has been a strong province because of all the Scarfies playing rugby. For some reason they are not coming, or not playing anymore and they just don't seem to be able to generate any sort of talent whatsoever. They've fallen a long way from the days of Kronfield, Oliver, Hayman, Meeus, etc. Their shining light is Tom Donnelly and Adam Thomson- but 2 guys can't win it every time. Its a make it or break it season for Otago I believe. They might guts out a low/mid table finish but nothing more.

Southland - Ranfurly Shield holders. I think much of Southland's season will be determined by whether or not they manage to hold onto the shield or not. If they do, they will have won a lot of home games and have generated some kind of momentum. They could quite easily take that last semi spot. BUT if they lose the shield I don't think they will have much of a season. Either a semi spot or a low/mid table finish.

Taranaki. Wait for it...big year for the Naki. Semi finalists. They've got a good squad (with the exception of Willi Ripia!). I've seen them train, Colin Cooper is here to coach them and the attitude in camp is one of confidence and expectation. I think they can do it this year. It has been a long time for the naki since they had some provincial success, its well overdue and if they don't make the semis, they will come damn close. I hope Cooper sees Ripia for the retard that he is and doesn't play him at first five, there is talk he won't. If Ripia is given the starting spot each week you can guarantee my prediction of a semi won't happen. I have huge beef with Ripia and simply want to see him fail. He isn't good enough, end of argument.

Tasman. The Makos far from disgraced themselves last year with some gutsy showings. Expect more of the same from them but they just dont have the talent to threaten a high placing. Mid/low table.

Waikato - Traditionally a strong province. Home of the chiefs. But one of the major dissapointments for their loyal (albeit annoying) fans is their inability to consistently put together a string of wins. They have wonderful talent but seem unable to play as a team. More of the same for the Mooloos and will end up in that top part of the table that misses out on a semi spot by a point or two.

Wellington. Well if you read our blog you will know how low an opinion we have of Wellington rugby. Nothing seems to change year after year in the capital and we have no reason to believe anything will be different this year. Moments of brilliance coupled with momentus stupidity served with a dollop of inconsistency and a side of 'Na'a nonu is still a one trick pony I don't care what you say'. They will start the season all trumped up with their own self importance and slowly peeter out and be left fighting for a semi spot which I don't think they will be good enough to get.

So there you have it. I think Canterbury will come out top. Hawkes Bay will make the final (if they don't meet Canterbury first). My two definite semi finalists are Hawkes Bay and Canterbury.

Bay of Plenty, Southland and Taranaki will fight it out for the remaining two slots and we'll see the Waikato, Auckland and Wellington come through with a late surge but not enough to make the semis.

One thing is certain. I will be wrong about something I've said! Its going to be a really tight competition and realistically. Any of the teams i've mentioned in the last paragraph have the credentials at least to make the semis. I've predicted a few things that I would love to see happen and I actually do think that at least some of my predictions are realistic.

The other boys may have some views! We'll wait and see.

Le Tour de France

Normally, I'm a huge fan of Le Tour and now having mysky, I thought that I would be even more up to date with the worlds premier cycling event.

Sadly, or maybe its just a reflection of my changing sporting tastes, I only managed a fleeting interest in this years event.

Watching Le Tour isn't quite the same at the moment. The great cycling characters like Lance Armtrong, Jan Ulrich, Ivan Basso, Tom Boonen, Thor Hushovd etc have been surpassed by the next generation of riders like Mark Cavendish, Andy Shleck and of course, the champion, Alberto Contador. I like Schleck. The other guys I don't really care about. I've never liked Contador, he's an arrogant son of a bitch and doesnt seem to have one redeeming quality.

He took the lead in the tour this year by attacking Andy Schleck up a mountain when his chain broke. Now, one event doesn't win or lose a tour, but that was certainly an indication of this guys character. You don't do that, its one of the sports unwritten rules. Don't attack the race leader while he is having mechanical difficulty. Fair enough, but not according to Contador. Slimy little Spaniard.

Anyway, Contador won the tour and Lance Armstrong announced his second retirement. I actually reckon he could keep going, even just finishing the tour is an awesome acheivement that only the truly elite cyclists can pull off. Armstrong fits into that bracket, but he is too proud to keep racing and not winning and you can't blame the guy for that. He is now being subjected to yet another drugs probe with convicted cheat Flloyd Landis alleging Armstrong systematically cheated during his 7 years of dominating the event.

Armstong has been tested enough, I'm convinced the guy is clean. Landis has a point to prove because he was caught and he is trying to tarnish a great cycling hero with the same brush as himself. Until proven guilty.....I still beleive Armstrong is clean.

From a New Zealand perspective, our man Julian Dean had an outstanding tour. 3 podium finishes and 2 second places (behind only Cavendish, who is an absolute freak) is without doubt something to be celebrated. Congratulations to Dean, who has for many years been the bitch leading out other sprinters. With the retirement of his team sprinter this year through injury we were given a chance to see Dean perform to his full ability. He should be pushing for the premier sprinters spot in another team and try for a stage win next year. He's got what it takes, he just needs a good team around him to pin Cavendish in and lead him out.

So, Tour is over for another year and I didn't catch much of it. Saw the highlights from a couple of important stages, but just didn't have the interest this year. Never mind, plenty more to write about- we're prevewing the ITM cup which kicks off on thursday evening, keep an eye out for our season picks.

Oh and one more thing....Go the Phoenix. 2-1 win over Boca Juniors. I didn't pick it but Jimmy did so much kudos there mate. We are quietly confident of the Phoenix's chances in the A-League this year. We've got a sneaky bet on them to win the league and we reckon that its more than a distinct possibility. They look to have the squad there to do it. While McKain will be missed at the back, I'm sure whoever Herbert brings in will be more than an adequate replacement.

Also on NZ football, I'm a little dissapointed that nothing more has come out of the world cup for a couple of our key players than 3 china deals. Vicelich has signed a 4 month deal, Chris Killen has moved to the same club, and Shane Smeltz signed for a Chinese club, then pulled out at the last minute, presumably because China simply sucks.

So, no interest in any of our guys from bigger clubs, which has me a little surprised and dissapointed. I would have though Reid, Smeltz, Paston and Bertos would be pretty good buying for some of Europe's finest. Even Eliot who admittedly is getting older, but would still be pretty cheap buying for a half decent club.

You have to wonder if the player's agents have been proactive enough in promoting these guys, or maybe there is still something coming? There is still a month left in the transfer window, lets wait and see I guess before getting too upset.